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Cake day: February 19th, 2025

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  • People are telling you that sources that don’t have a track record of lying are typically good sources. Beyond that, you can use the FIRMS map for reviewing if an attack has really taken place. It’s a system for detecting forest fires by satellites, but it also detects any other bigger fires. You can use it for example to see where the actual front lines are because where a lot of artillery shells explode, there’s a “forest fire” on the map. It might not show everything because if there happen to be clouds overneath, the satellites will not recognise the fire. So, it might give you false negatives, but usually not false positives.



  • Dir mögen die privaten Bahngesellschaften “Wunderbahnen” sein, aber da sind wir unterschiedlicher Meinungen. Die sind vermütlich nicht wirklich dss Ende der Welt, aber besser ist es, dass ÖV zu Staaten und Städten gehört.

    Die Idee der Liberalisierung liegt darin, den unterschiedlichen Staatsbahnen Zugang zu den Netzen anderer Staatsbahnen zu gewährleisten. Z.B. die LTG mag wohl für Lettland eine von dir geliebte “private Wunderbahn”" sein, das es eh nicht zu lettischem Gesellschaft gehört, ist aber tatsächlich eine reine Staatsfirma – gehört 100% dem litauischen Staat. Und über den Verkehr zwischen Riga und Vilnius hatten die Letten und Litauer Jahrzehnte verhandelt, bis Litauen endlich aufgegeben hat, und den Zug jetzt einfach auf eigener Rechnung fährt.

    (Außerdem finde ich deine beschissene Logik für lächerlich: wenn dir die privaten solche “Wunderbahnen” sind, wozu bist denn du gegen die Liberalisierung ? Ist das nur eine blöde Argumentierung – eine versuchte grundlose Beleidigung zum Spaß? Oder wolltest du doch nicht bullen und hattest einfach schwierigkeiten in der Schule und verstehst die Sachlage wirklich nicht?)










  • In casualties as in military losses Ukraine is doing quite badly: Ukraine has lost some 300 000 as dead and wounded, while the Russia has lost around 800 000 as dead and wounded. The population difference is 1:3½, and the difference in total military losses is 1:2½. That means, Ukraine is losing a slightly larger share of its population as military casualties than the Russia is.

    However… Neither side is going to run out of population anytime soon. Ukrainian soldiers go to the front, eventually maybe get wounded and return home one leg poorer. Their children will not have to live with their father, only without an organic right leg of the father. And for the Russian side, the deaths are a much bigger proportion of the population. There the ratio is around 1:4½, and that one favours Ukraine.

    If a person is measuring ground gained in this war, he does not understand the war very much at all. Neither side is trying to gain ground. Both sides are trying to incur as much losses to the enemy as possible. The Russia because they need to keep the gore to the maximum in order to convince the west to stop supporting Ukraine, and Ukraine, because if the Russia’s losses drop under 1000 per month, they will be able to start training their soldiers, which will make a huge difference in their dangerousness. The Russia knows very well that it will never take over Ukraine with the current speed of advancing. Remember, in year 2024 the Russia was gaining ground faster than expected. And in year 2024 they managed to gain 0.7 % of Ukraine’s total territory. Less, if you take the Kursk province’s happenings into account. 0.7 % is strategically meaninglessly little.

    Artillery shell production is currently about twice as high in the Russia as it’s in the west. But when you take into account that to hit a specific target, the very inaccurate Russian artillery needs to shoot about ten times as many rounds as western artillery, the numbers start looking different: For military use, you either should divide the Russia’s artillery shell numbers by ten, or alternatively multiply ours by ten. Depth of reserves… Well, here we come back to casualties and motivations.

    • As said, the population ratio is 1:3½.
    • The total military casualty ratio is 1:2½, favouring the Russia.
    • The military death ratio is 1:4½, favouring Ukraine.

    Russian soldiers are in it for the money. The Russia will have useful amounts of money to give to the soldiers for another six to fifteen months, about. After that the motive is gone. Typically, it is easier for the defending party to find soldiers for a war than it is for the aggressor. This is the case in this war as well. This means, when interpreting the casualty ratios, you need to add a multiplier for taking into account that the defender can tap into a larger share of the population than the aggressor can.

    Remember, Ukrainians are sending to the front less than a fifth of what they could, if we compare with Finland. Finland has a population of 5,6 million and we have about one million soldiers ready to serve within some months of the begin of a hypothetical war. Each one of them has received a top-class military training and each one has a specific place in a specific unit in the army should a war break. Ukraine has about the same size army as that, even though they have over 40 million people. The unwillingness to join the front is a surprising feature, at least from a Finnish perspective, but also a result of a lack of motivation. If the scales were to tip in the favour of the Russia, Ukrainians would get scared and more would be ready to help their country. When looking at the very large difficulties Ukraine has with conscription, you need to take this into account. The problem is of a type that solves itself. It’s extremely unfair towards the soldiers at the front that they never get relieved. And idiotic that people don’t want to join the army because soldiers never get relieved from the front … because there are not enough people ready to go to the front. And, from my experience living in Ukraine, I would say that this won’t change. They will remain understaffed as long as the war will go on, but always precisely at the limit where they can still keep scraping on.

    Ukraine’s army won’t be disappearing anytime soon, the west is effortlessly able to pay all of Ukraine’s budget indefinitely if it so wishes and the Russia is not able to gain any ground. The Russia’s goals are to cause Ukraine to collapse economically or its army to collapse from lack of manpower, and neither of those can happen. At the same time, the Russian economy, and therefore military, have at max one year time left. After that they will have nothing to use for stopping Ukraine from reclaiming its territories.

    EDIT: I want to add: While the Ukrainians’ readiness to defend their country is lower than Finns’, that’s mostly because Finland has an exceptionally high readiness for that. If you compare with Germany or France, the Ukrainians look extremely willing to go to the front. What I wanted to say is that although their willingness is very high, there is still a lot of place for improvement!



  • Staatseisenbahn möchte ich eigentlich auch – im Grund genommen.

    Das alte ging aber nicht wirklich. Wir hatten eine Eisenbahnlinie, die fast bis zur Staatsgrebze führte, und eine andere, die 15 km nach der Grenze anfing. Und zwischen den beiden Bahnöfen … Nichts.

    Was könnte funktionieren wäre eine einzige EU-breite Unionsbahn. Z.B. in der Ukraine wird gelobt, wie gut alles bezüglich der Eisenbahn läuft – sogar mitten in einem genozidälen Krieg. Und das läuft dort so gut genau, weil es eine reine Staatsbahn ist.

    Aber, eine EU-“Staatsbahn” wäre für vielen hier echt abschreckend. Die EU-Lösung für das war, Staatsbahnen zu den anderen Ländern quasi ohne weiteres fahren zu lassen, wie es hier der Fall war: Die niederländische Staatsbahn in Deutschland ist hier das Thema. Aber unsere Wettbewerbubgsverfahren hat strukturelle Probleme, die die ganze Eisenbahn verlahmen. Wenn eventuell die EU-System bezüglich Eisenbahn in der Ukraine im Kraft tritt, werden wir sicherlich sehen, dass auch dort alles bei der Eisenbahn so wird wie hier bei uns in der EU…

    Trotz allem… Das jetzige ist weniger schlecht als das vorherige 26-Staatsbahnen-ohne-Zusammenarbeit-Prinzip. Die neue Verbindung von Vilnius nach Tallinn hätte mit der alten Staatabahn-Lösung nie wirklichkeit werden können. Wie wäre die EU-Unionsbahn?