The Portuguese Air Force is no longer expected to acquire the 5th generation F-35 fighter from Lockheed Martin, all due to the review of the US position towards NATO.
Stuff like this might actually be what unravels the Trump administration. The military industrial complex is far more powerful than any of the people Orange Julius has surrounded himself with, and they will not like taking losses to appease his ego.
Donald Trump is not suicidal!
Mmm… Pretty interesting article.
Portugal was lucky to get quite late aboard the F35 ship, as they decided about it as late as April 2024. Finland, where I’m from, was one of the earliest ones, deciding about the procurement in late 2022. Some other ones, as told by Wikipedia:
Canada: Jan 2023 Czechia: Jan 2024 Germany: 2023 Greece: Delivery 2027, so ordered probably in late 2023 or so? Poland: 2020, apparently some already delivered? Romania: November 2024 Singapore: Early 2024 Switzerland: delivery from 2027, so probably ordered in late 2023?
The further the procurement process, the more money might get wasted if the order has to be cancelled. Would still make sense to cancel, though, because a weapon you are free to use as long as there is no war is just a heap of scrap metal. It does not matter how much money we’ve already spent on the scrap metal, we should not put a cent more.
Let’s do this too! 🇨🇦
There has been talk. Apparently will cost about 500 million to cancel the contract.
Money well spent. But, frankly, who is that 500 million to? What happens if… They just don’t pay? I mean, Trump is very familiar with just not paying bills owed, maybe Canada should just… Return in kind?
Even business-wise and strictily obbeying the contract conditions, paying 500 million for nothing still makes more business sense that paying billions for what will become inactive-plane-shaped pieces of metal if Canada ever needs to defend itself against the only country that geographically is in a position of actually invading it.
If we assume that Portugal would have ordered the same number as Czechia (a fellow European country with a pretty close GDP, population, and military budget that already bought F-35s) and take the flyaway cost on wikipedia of $82.500,000 as the price Portugal would have paid per plane, that’s $2 billion in sales that Lockheed Martin doesn’t get
Portugal would probably have bought more, since we have a large area of the Atlantic Ocean that needs to be patrolled not only by sea, but also by air.
You also gotta make sure nobody tries to steal the Azores for their beautiful nature.
that’s $2 billion in sales that Lockheed Martin doesn’t get
And that’s just the beginning.
I feel like billionaires might resolve the Trump/musk issue for us. Fucking with a defense contractor’s bottom line is pretty dangerous, especially when you have private security (Musk)
I feel like billionaires might resolve the Trump/musk issue for us. Fucking with a defense contractor’s bottom line is pretty dangerous, especially when you have private security (Musk)
Honestly, I feel it’s more likely to display how much the defense industry is just another ordinary industry. They’ll whinge and wring their hands, maybe openly support the limpdick opposition if they’re feeling particularly pressured, but all that experience in making killing machines is just engineering and marketing. They’re not more likely to have clout or death squads (of their own, at least) than other major industries of comparable size and importance, and everything is structured in such a compartmentalized way that they couldn’t really leverage that against the government if they actually wanted to throw down.
The defense industry is more like the oil industry than a cyberpunk future. Influential, not independent.
The funniest possible outcome of this would be Lockheed Martin starting up a Tesla competitor
Do they get more planes for their buck now?
Disclaimer in that I am not in any way an expert on military procurement: it depends on what they buy.
There are three European planes that can do similar roles: the Typhoon (Anglo-German-Italian), the Rafale (French), and the Gripen (Swedish). According to this RUSI article, it looks like the Typhoon is probably actually more expensive per plane. The Typhoon was also, unlike the other two and the F-35, designed to be a pure air superiority fighter, so it’s more of an F-22 competitor than an F-35 one. Probably not what Portugal is looking for. That RUSI article has the Rafale as being a bit more expensive than the F-35 and the Gripen being a bit cheaper than it. However, the source for the F-35’s number is the flyaway cost for the Americans, who did ordered it in huge numbers and also did most (not all, but most) of the development and I would assume get a better deal than others. Further, it’s in an article headlined “F-35’s price might rise, Lockheed warns”. So I’m just going to hedge my bets and say:
- If they buy the Typhoon, definitely no, but the Typhoon probably isn’t the right fit anyway
- If they buy the Rafale, somewhere around the same, and it’ll still be extremely capable
- If they buy the Gripen, yes, and it’ll still be very good but not quite individually capable as the other options
Thank you. This was the answer I was looking for.
That’s all well and good, but you’re also missing a critical point.
The European Union is very likely to introduce a bill that will massively subsidize purchases of local (EU) military equipment. This will make all EU alternatives much, much more attractive than F-35s.
This is a great move by the EU - it drives a lot of military spending away from the US and into the local economies, while shoring up its own security as well as preventing being at the hands of a fickle fascist for maintenance and upgrades.
Which in turn will probably also help with economies of scale, making the ex-subsidy cost of that equipment go down.
A last point to consider is that the rafale is cheaper to operate than the F-35
hey guys, I think that trump guy might just be really awful for America.
Why is that a bad thing ?
I’m assuming because American arms dealers like Lockheed Martin are losing a ton of business and America is rapidly losing the soft power and influence its build over the past 80 years
Why is that a bad thing ?
because that’s the entire crux of NATO, the post war world, and most of the military stability that currently exists throughout the western world, and beyond.
Who knows what happens after this point.
You mean how NATO destroyed Asia, Africa and the Middle East and is making masses of refugee streams emigrate? Very stable indeed.
NATO is the worlds largest terror organisation by a long shot. You deny their crimes committed in broad daylight because you have not been a victim of them.
What is next, The Empire did nothing wrong?
NATO destroyed asia? Aside from vietnam, which im not sure is in asia off the top of my head, which was also a war the US was personally involved in, im not sure what influence NATO has had outside of NATO member states. You know, the ones that actually matter.
WWIII ofc, it’s inevitable if NATO falls. Who knows how it will play out, but it will play out if that comes to pass.
it’s an interesting time to be alive in, that’s for sure.
Now I understand why the phrase may you live in interesting times isn’t exactly a kind remark.
It’s migration season, and this is only the first bird - I predict there’s more of them.
I think we have an interesting conflict of interest on the US side of the ocean: “the US military industrial complex” vs. “Trump, driving away their customers”.
Got to speed up the European 6th gen fighter development
That’s how we get shitty aircraft. Need to speed up developing homebrew avionics for the F35s.
The F35 is trash anyways
it’s trash, if you ignore literally everything it’s good at, which is basically everything it’s designed for.
Turns out cars aren’t very good at crossing the ocean. Who would’ve thunk a fighter jet not designed for dogfighting wouldn’t be designed to dogfight. Truly a baffling conundrum.
By all metrics available, the F35 is literally the most capable jet in existence, it’s technological capabilities are literally unmatched.
Why the hell does Portugal need an air force? Is Russia going to cross the entire continent to attack them? Is Morocco going to launch an invasion through the straight of Gibraltar?
Cool use of money.
Portugal has a massive maritime Exclusive Economic Area for the size of the country both because it mainly stands alone at the westermost tip of Europe (bar a small piece of Spain to the north of Portugal and then, way further North and more to the East, the Republic Of Ireland), and because of the Azores archipelago (which adds a massive circle in the middle of the Atlantic to Portugal’s maritime EEA) and the Madeira archipelago (which adds a semi-circle off the West coast of Africa).
Further, Portugal is expected to militarily cooperate with the rest of the EU in case of an attack on any EU country (the most likely of which would be Russia attacking an Eastern European member) and ditto for NATO, which is especially important for exactly fighter planes because they’re the most mobile military assets around.
It makes sense for the Portuguese Military to focus more on the Air Force, Navy, the local equivalent of Marines (Fuzileiros) and air-transported commandos and less on Armor, Artillery and Regular Infantry exactly because it’s land territory is far less likely to be directly invaded but it both has a massive sea “territory” and it belongs to very large military alliances or alliances with military treaty obligations containing far away members which have a real risk of being invaded.
Okay, but actually attacking them on the far western tip of the continent would require going past the rest of the EU/NATO bloc. That’s just not realistic. The most they might ever deal with is piracy, and they don’t need jets for that.
Fulfilling obligations is obviously necessary, but they don’t need new jets. This is obviously just military Keynesianism.
I’m sorry but you’re just talking of your ass there.
Portuguese Air-force assets, including fighter jets, are constantly deployed to the Portuguese Economic Area for missions such following the naval assets of hostile nations passing through or near it or even investigating possible criminal activity. The maritime EEA of Portugal is way larger than the actual country and at times the only vehicles that can reach further out enough fast enough are fighter jets.
Furter, fighter jets are literally the only kind of significant help Portugal would be able to send within to its Eastern European partners in the EU and NATO if Russia invaded them (certainly neither the Leopard tanks or regular infantry would get there for a while).
By pointing out that the land territory of Portugal is at low risk of invasion you’re actually making the point in favor of fighter jets since those assets make a lot more sense than ground-based assets for a country whose main military demands are on a huge sea area off its territority including far-away parts (around Madeira and Azores) and its military obligations in the two large military alliances the country is part of.
I’d also happily argue against ground-based assets, they don’t need tanks either! They need tools for enforcing their naval sovereignty and fighting pirates and such, but fighter jets aren’t really the best tools for those jobs.
Also, I acknowledged that fulfilling obligations is necessary. They don’t need new fighter jets for that. Besides, if we reach the point where Russia invades NATO it’s just going to rapidly escalate to nukes and then we’ll all die anyway so 🤷♀️
This is just Portugal giving away their own people’s money to businesses in other countries.
Well, the best time to build up a military defensive force is in times of peace, so it’s there in times of invasion.
See: Ukraine.
Ukraine was surrounded by conflcits long before it was invaded. Portugal hasn’t seen conflict for almost a hundred years.
They are not comparable.
In your ignorance you’re forgetting the “Colonial Wars” until 74 that were bad enough that directly caused the fall of the Fascist Regime in Portugal.
I said “continental” for a reason, don’t talk down to me. I’m also pretty sure Portugal didn’t face any danger at all during those wars. In fact, those wars are actually an argument for not allowing Portugal to have jets!
First
Portugal hasn’t seen conflict for almost a hundred years.
then
I said “continental” for a reason
So you’re simply lying.
I’ll absolutelly talk down to people outright lying about things I know better because I was born in the bloody place, members of my family were involved in it and I grew up hearing about it: shameless liars coming here to parrot propaganda do not deserve respect.
Ah shit, I said “continental” in a different comment. I mispoke here, you’re right.
I still don’t see how the colonial wars are an argument for Portugal having jets. Those wars were unjustified and Portugal deserved to lose every single one.
You claimed that Portugal not having been involved in major wars for almost a century (which was a false claim) was a reason for the country to not need jets, an argument which literally links the need for jets to being involved in major wars.
Now you’ve moved the goalposts and it’s only “some” major wars that justify having jets, not “other” major wars, and which are the “jet requiring wars and which aren’t” being entirelly up to you to define.
(FYI, Portugal used fighter jets in its Colonial Wars)
In summary, you’ve literally talked yourself into a “it’s so because i say it’s so argumentative corner”.
The feeling that your discourse in all your posts here leaves is that you do not want Portugal to have jets, for reasons that have nothing at all to do with the geostrategical and defense needs and objectives of Portugal and is in fact related to the imperialistic objectives of certain, completelly different and non-friendly, countries being better served by a less well armed Europe, only you can’t just outright come out and say it because that would severely damage the “opinion making” ability of your comments, hence the half-arsed circular argumentation balanced on top of nothing more than misinformation and unfundamented opinion.
Hey, maybe I’m wrong, so I’ll leave it to others in this thread to make up their own minds about it.
“Why the hell does Ukraine need nukes?”
You in 1994, presumably.
The comparison doesn’t really make sense, Eastern Europe has seen conflict since the 90s: the Yugoslav Wars, the Transnistria conflict, the Georgian–Ossetian conflict, the Chechen-Russian conflict, etc. etc.
Continental Western Europe hasn’t seen conflict for almost a hundred years. The closest conflict was the Troubles in the British Isles.
Who does Portugal need to defend themselves from?
From you, and from anyone who says we don’t need defenses.
They need an air force to stop me?
Damn I didn’t realize I was so powerful!
Continental Western Europe hasn’t seen conflict for almost a hundred years.
So, WWII, that last major war… Taught a lesson: You need to be able to use violence, to deal with fascists. Because, before you know it, they’re walking across all of Europe.
Now, Portugal needs to worry about the hostile force that can park a fleet of warships off their coast (The US).
Point. However, the only realistic defense from the US empire is to rely on the nuclear arms from their allies or build their own nukes. Nothing else really matters.
Why the hell does a sovereign country need an air force ? Really ? (Hint : to stay sovereign, for starter)
To stay sovereign from who? Who’s coming for Portugal?
Doesn’t matter. Every sovereign country has the right to enforce their rules in their airspace (in accordance with international law) at the very least
Okay, but every People have a right to demand their government spend money on social programs and not military boondoggles. Ultimately, what do the Portuguese want? Do they want more jets?
Of course. But they don’t have to go full MIC and could still keep a small fleet of jets that will be good for a few decades but at some point they’ve gotta modernize.
They could also not have a fleet of jets and they’d be fine.
Give it time, and the US will. Or Russia. The two worst offenders in the “Colonial and imperialist empires”. Both of which are hard up on the sabre rattling at this time.
Portugal could never buy enough jets to stop the US. They need nukes. Not a ton! Just a few is enough to scare away other powers.
As for Russia, they’re literally the farthest country in Europe from them! Getting to Portugal would mean Europe has collapsed and can’t stop Russia, and once again, the only defense here would be nukes.
Portugal could never buy enough jets to stop the US
No, but Spain is right next to it and France isn’t that far. Both likely to help. But why would they help Portugal if Portugal itself doesn’t take meaningful steps to protect itself? You use a lot of exclamation points in your comments! That doesn’t magically mean you’re right.
So, in solidarity, with the rest of Europe, all arms equally, to defend.
United we stand, divided we fall.
