40.000 is what is currently part of the reaction force - not the total force strength.

Active service/Reserve forces of the nations with direct borders to either Belarus or Russia:

• Norway: 33.000/60.000

• Finnland: 18.000/ 180.000-280.000 (And we all know how this turned out the last time)/18.000

• Lithuania: 23.000/104.000

• Estonia: 7.700/80.000(but almost half in rapid response readiness)

• Latvia: 17.000/38.000

• Poland: 216.000/670.000

That does not include the countries that are currently heavily investing in the Baltics. Germany plans to have 4.000 soldiers stationed there permanently with 30.000 active personal rotating in and out. Canada has also a brigade stationed there, the UK does the same and hosts the command in the UK.

If you count the other Baltic sea nations that mostly have a very high interest in keeping the Russiand at bay you also have Sweden (24.000+22.000 Homeguard/32.000), Denmark (16.000/12.000+51.000 HomeGuard) and Germany (180.000/930.000) you have even higher numbers.

These are roughly twice as many soldiers as Putin currently can access at the moment - and he is heavily based on conscripts and semi general mobilization which is not part of the equations for most countries here, neither are other key players (e.g. UK 135.000/32.000), France (270.000/63.000), Spain(133.000/264.000), Italy (165.000/35.000), Romania (81.000/55.000) and the smaller but often highly motivated nations, e.g. the Czech Republic (34.000/4000). Even though there are some countries who’s motivation may be shaky (Italy, to some extend Germany and some smaller players like Hungary) Europe very likely would be united against a common cause in a situation like that. The most interesting point would be how Erdogan in Türkiye would respond - he has one of the largest armies on this side of the pond (481.000/380.000) and there are quite a lot of people who believe that Erdogan would actually stick with “European NATO” in this case simply he would be too afraid that Putin could either reconsider his “future” border (post Georgia invasion which is far more likely) with Türkiye or simply because he would be afraid of his old military guard.

Would that guarantee victory against a joint Putin-Trump full on attack against Europe? No. Not at all. All sides would loose. Terribly.

In total soldier numbers Europe does actually surpass both the current Russian and all US armed forces combined (narrowly). Of course the US have a huge material advantage,but this is partially based on logistics from Europe (and often stored here). All this facilities would be lost then and Russia would be unable to easily supply similar logistical capacities - they simply don’t have them and transport via eastern polar routes(as the western routes are within Norwegian and Finnish reach) or the eastern ports of Russia is bothersome.

While the US navy is mighty,it would be operating very far from home - further away than it has operated from any allied base ever and in very very hostile waters. (Actually the British navy is the last modern navy to have operated that far away from an allied base during a combat mission) So the US would be limited to high flying stealth bombers (don’t do that much damage and can absolutely be detected by modern western radar), stuff they drag all the way through Russia, whatever they can ferry through the pond which would be infested by various submarines that, while mainly non nuclear, are still a major treat to their navy (ask the Swedes).It would certainly not be enough for a D-Day like operation.

So the other option is: Well… intercontinental ballistic missiles. While I am absolutely sure that the fascist orange wouldn’t hesitate a minute to use this option if someone tells him it makes his golf course worth more as all of Scotland’s course are now burned to crisps it would also mean that Putin and Trump himself would be fucked. Because the very next minute he presses the button someone else will press a button - either in London or Paris. France is already offering to place nuclear capabilities in eastern and central Europe for this very reason. In the end Washington would be nuked the same way Moscow, London, Paris and Berlin would be. And while the Orange acts irrational his buddy Putler does not - the mediocre KGB officer understands what happens to him if his puppet in Washington overreacts.

The fact that a nation does fascist shit is never excused by the fact that there might be people who weren’t all bad. Or were even good.

Sincerely, A German.

Maybe,just maybe, look up your world politics again.

• All baltic nations(except Russia) are NATO members
• All baltic nations (except Russia) are EU members and therefore covered by the Lisbon accords as well - which are much more far reaching than what NATO accords cover,btw.

So while the Baltics are in a shitty situation it’s not like Russia could attack a “non NATO” Baltic nation - as your “including” make it seem.

And currently there are 40.000 Soldiers of the ARF either deployed in the Baltics or ready to deployed within short notice - while the EU battlegroup is also available and gaining speed. The former is - for the first time - not sustained by US troops mainly,the later one of course never was. And as the ARF is a very British corps the UK has made it very clear that the ARF also operates under the British nuclear deterrence - so did France with both battlegroups.

Will that be enough to deter Putin? Who knows. Is it nothing? Definitely not - at the moment it would be, even without US support, enough to cause either the Ukrainian front or the “new front” (wherever that would be) to collapse fast.

Your narrative is either influenced by Russian misinformation or you are Russian misinformation - it is known that Russia tries to “it’s not worth it to even fight” narrative heavily into Europe and it has done so in Ukraine before.

Nope. They literally are. See answers below my post and various others here.

Yes. And I am old enough to have attended my first protest without a mobile phone - because I simply didn’t have one yet back then. And my first one I organised actually was a failure because it was impossible to communicate a change of venue.

And before my time protesting was suddenly much harder once the other side had the option to mobilise their forces and react to protesters much mor fluidly. (Mainly when handheld police radio became widely available)

The point is: There is always a force, intelligence and information disadvantage between the different sides - a state actor will always be in a better position. This is even more true in times where mass surveillance is very easy to achieve. A developing world country nowadays easily can achieve a level of surveillance of protests that surpases Stasi levels in their best days for 1% of the resources. Proper and secure communications are one of the only ways to level the playing field at least a bit.

Sure,you can go to plain old “we meet there at XY” protests. Have fun doing that. Your chances to be a victim of repression if you do so within repressive circumstances are far higher,but if you like that?

Good point! Please everyone, verify everything I wrote externally for your own security - I really hope I didn’t make any mistakes,but it’s your security.

Ich bin bereits 2022 ausgetreten,war aber vorher sehr aktiv und hatte diverse Parteiämter inne,auch auf Landesebene hier - und war Kandidat für eine LTW+habe ich mich um einen Listenplatz zur BTW beworben.

An der Basis hat sich durchaus zuletzt auch etwas getan,bei den Verantwortlichen in den Landesverbänden, der Fraktion und Bundesführung sehe ich aber ehrlich gesagt wenig “frischen Wind” - es sind auf vielen Ebenen genau diejenigen die damals die Wagenknechte gedeckt haben&danach den Sofa-Pazifismus propagiert haben weil er bequemer ist & man sich nicht unbeliebt macht bei der Altbasis.

“Ihr Jungen kommt und geht,aber wir bleiben”. (Zitat zu mir als ich mich über diese Haltung aufgeregt hab)

Wenn es jetzt die wenigen “Vernünftigen” die seit 2022 noch geblieben sind (damals sind extrem viele vor mir,nach mir und mit mir gegangen) und die neuen schaffen, diese Haltung zu verdrängen und echte Realpolitik zu erzwingen, bin ich froh drum. Mein Herz schlägt weiter links. Aber ich sehe es aktuell nicht mal im Ansatz.

To be fair: Australian mining and resources could replace a lot of what Russia is still delivering to the world -for both Europe,but also China and India - and thereby massively reducing Russias war chest.

Und deswegen bin ich ausgetreten. Moralischer Kompass ist da vielen aus ihrem Sofa-Pazifismus heraus vollkommen verloren gegangen.

Aber bei jedem Parteitag Bella Ciao spielen - Ein Partisanen-Lied.

Und den gefallenen in Spanien gedenken.

There has been a NIH 3D model database,but it has become unreliable already for orange reasons. Besides that there aren’t many options beside manifold or plainly hosting your own site (which is not that hard tbh, but makes it hard for others to find,though)

Gosh, how many people here, who are proposing that people leave their phones at home have actually been to a protest in real life?

My strong guess is: None. Neither has the author of the article been to one.

As someone who attended my fair share protests,including ones in fairly oppressive countries: Take a fucking phone with you, but please use a designated burner phone.

Reasons to have a phone:

• Communication is necessary and paramount - from reorganisation (we are blocked here, so we meet there)to warning (the cops are coming from there and block us off here) people communication is the major aspect that has enabled people to protest effectively and not fall into traps. We can only protest effectively if we are united. And that requires information.

• Let’s face it: Pictures and videos are important. Not only in a “the cops are beating us to pulp situation” (their use there is limited), but also to mobilise others, show the extend of the mobilisation (the other side will usually downplay the size of the protests), feed social media (which is important), etc. As long as basic precautions are taken (no faces/identifiable information, no crimes, change position after you post it) this actually helps the cause and maintains the narrative (it’s mighty hard to brand protests “full of rioters” when social media shows 100k people protesting peacefully). Mainstream and foreign media relies on this as most media outlets to not have actual coverage of critical protests (and if they do, they usually are behind police lines).

• Especially for larger protests you will often work in uncommon areas. Cities you have never been before. You will need reliable map services and geo location (where is the next hospital? Which shops are open? Are there any shopping malls we can slip into if needed? Where can we sleep? Is there a metro station we can use nearby?) This information is not only vital,it can be time critical. A friend of mine is only alive because his peers knew the way to the next hospital - neither of them was from the city, the ambulance stopped responding hours before that,etc.

• Phones are good transmitters - the cops will find any media you have on you if they really want (and they will search very well if they want), don’t think you can hide a micro SD card somewhere. Some countries(including the US) have started to x-ray their new inmates to make sure they don’t hide media within their bodies. (Official excuse: Drug packaging and “welfare”) So often the best bet is to get all evidence, all media the other side doesn’t want to see out before they have access to your phone. (Which I wouldn’t count on to get back)

• They can also be a liveline to get one out of prison. The fact that relatives and fellow activists “know” that their loved ones are being arrested is essential for getting them out and prevent charges. Even in very democratic states the cops will be overstretched for days after a mass protest and people will be locked up without much identification and records. And none will know if Person A is locked up, in hospital, vanished due to something else (e.g. hiding or being a victim of something completely different - I know a girl who got offered a place to sleep after a protest and was locked in their basement for two days with their desire to make her their sex slave communicated), etc. Additionally,in the more oppressive countries,the other side will often use the “we don’t know anything, the person didn’t even attend” excuse to prevent people from getting legal help in time.

Now,the article has a bit of bad advice:

• It is a horrible idea to simply wipe your old phone after backup. Storage doesn’t work that way. It is a easy task for any forensic expert to restore most if not all information on the phone. And as it was not used with all data privacy considerations before,there is a good chance they will find leads.

• It can be problematic to use VPNs, especially in a situation like this and if people use public VPNs. Remember,people know that VPNs exist and the other side usually has control over the telecommunications infrastructure. In at least two cases I know of, the use of a popular VPN within a certain cell tower range was used to differentiate between protestors and average citizens. People therefore should make an informed decision if they rather use normal “semi encrypted” communication (nothing unusual in using Signal,Bluesky,Twitter or Facebook in most countries) or if they want to use a VPN to tunnel their traffic but also are more susceptible.

Some better advice:

• Get a burner phone - do not get a used phone,do use your old phone - I literally bought a old phone from a radical neo Nazi on eBay once - the restored data showed massive illegal activities. You can get new phone with a reasonable secure OS for around 100 bucks these days.

• If possible get a prepaid card that is not linked to your name. Bonus if you can use a roaming card - a card from a different country. It is far more difficult for a country to access identifying information then. Do not use that card for anything else and do not set it up at home.

• Create designated social media accounts for protesting and do not use them from home (unless proper precautions are used) and only use them for that.

• Never log into any private accounts with the burner.

• Do not store anything incriminating on the phone - in your mind you must always be treat it like a device the other side might have full access to. Because if they want to,they will. (Yeah, I know, some countries still protect that information - but even there I saw cops overstepping their borders and simply force people. And once they are in,they are in)

• Degooglefy/Desamsungfy your phone as much as possible and make sure things like location based tracking,etc. are off.

• Consider using Briar and make it popular amongst your fellow protesters. Briar can be used without any mobile phone coverage, as it works with WiFi or Bluetooth only (via ad hoc connections). A single phone hidden in a public place can be used as a relay and inform thousands. But it requires a certain amount of users to work effectively.

• Once the other side got their hands on it consider it burned. Because that’s what it is.

• Keep your phone on, charged as much as possible, but in full(!) airplane mode (unless you use Briar,then keep BT on) but keep your GPS activated (again: remove location tracking services). Preload the relevant maps onto the device, ideally with satellite picture if available, these can be helpful). Keep relevant documents (e.g. timetables, partner organisations,etc.) in another encrypted file.

• Keep a reasonably encrypted file with a minimum number of contacts - lawyer, some civil rights organisations. If you want to have the number of a loved one find one of the countless online SIP providers(ideally in another country) and forward from there.

• Most phones allow a number of numbers to be accessed without unlocking the phone. Save a lawyer/protest organisation number in there so you can access it without unlocking.