Heres a summary of the predictions made, from never all the way up to within the year. It seems to me the closer you get to the dollar bill the sooner the projections become.

“Some experts predict it will never happen…”

“Some experts argue that human intelligence is more multifaceted than what the current definition of AGI describes.” (That AGI is not possible.)

“Most agree that AGI will arrive before the end of the 21st century.”

“Some researchers who’ve studied the emergence of machine intelligence think that the singularity could occur within decades.”

Current surveys of AI researchers are predicting AGI around 2040"

“Entrepreneurs are even more bullish, predicting it around ~2030”

“The CEO of Anthropic, who thinks we’re right on the threshold—give it about 12 more months or so.”

These are the kind of subtleties that people often miss, thank you for expressing them.

Thanks for the TL;DR, I figured it would be a uneducated take, you saved me the time of watching it 🫡