I respect everything you’ve written, but the context of the screenshot is seeing someone comment in a general forum, who implicitly identities as cis-het, and publicly weighing the odds that they’re a trans person who hasn’t yet come to that realization. It feels presumptive in a way that doesn’t sit right with me, though I’m not sure I can verbalize it better.

The best parallel I can draw is assuming that a stereotypically camp guy or that a girl who’s a “tomboy” are gay. Yeah, the odds are weighted towards it somewhat, but extrapolating and going “oh ho ho, I know how this ends up” really feels disrespectful and assumptive in a way that feels parallel to misgendering.

Again, it’s possible I’m reacting too strongly.